While not many players truly understand the concept of expected value, those who are experts in video poker are familiar with this term and know how to estimate it. The expected value is the average return you can anticipate when holding a certain hand. Once you become interested in playing video poker successfully, you will also encounter the term expected return.
If you really want to enjoy a fruitful gambling experience, you cannot simply rely on luck; you have to make decisions that will influence the outcome of the game. Since it is not always easy to decide which cards to hold and which ones to discard, you must be aware of the expected value and expected return for each winning hand . This information will help you decide which action is best before the second draw in video poker.
Back in the day, mathematicians who were interested in gambling spent a lot of time calculating the different probabilities that apply to all winning hands in video poker. While it was tough enough to make calculations with 52 regular cards, introducing jokers and turning the deuces into wilds made everything even more complicated. The process became even more difficult when different payouts were introduced to give casinos a bigger advantage.
Nowadays, although calculating expected return and expected value involves some math, it is definitely advantageous to know how to make these estimations because they help you understand the profit you can expect and allow you to compare different strategies and the value they bring.
Understanding the Expected Value and How to Calculate It
We can define expected value as a combination of the value you receive from the results (wins or losses) and the odds of how often a certain outcome will occur. You will notice that the payout for the various hands in video poker depends on how difficult it is to form each hand.
Whenever you are holding a certain hand of five cards, there are a few things to consider when evaluating which winning combination is worth pursuing. The first thing is to pay attention to the exact video poker variation you are playing. For instance, you might be playing 9/6 Jacks or Better, the most popular video poker variation among casino fans. It offers a payout of 9 to 1 for a Full House and 6 to 1 for a Flush.
To determine the value of a certain hand, we simply multiply the frequency of winning by the payout for that hand. If you are dealt a winning hand on the initial deal, the probability of winning is definite, expressed as 100% or 1.0, which is used for estimating the hand’s value. For example, if the value of an already made Flush is 1.0 and you multiply it by 6, you get an expected value of $6.
However, being dealt a completed hand is quite rare. That said, you can use the same formula to calculate the value of a hand that is not formed on the first draw. All you need to do is multiply the probability of winning with the hand you are holding by the payout for that specific hand.
These calculations are known as determining the expected value (EV) of a specific hand. This process allows players to compare the value of one poker hand with another.
Expected Value Additional TipsIf, for example, you draw a hand that looks like 10h-Ah-Jh-2h-2d, you need to decide on the optimal move. There are several hands you can form in this situation, and you can determine which is best by comparing their values. If you hold the pair of 2s, the hand’s value is estimated at $0.82. If you aim for a Royal Flush and keep the 10, Ace, and Jack, the value is $1.32. There is, however, another option: hold the four cards of the same suit and hope for a Flush. In this third scenario, the hand is valued at $1.28.
By comparing the values, you can see that the wisest choice is to hold the 10, Ace, and Jack. Although you might think the value of this option is higher only because it can lead to a Royal Flush, there is more to it. In reality, there is only one way to achieve a Royal Flush by keeping these three cards, but there are an estimated 1,081 other combinations of two cards that can replace the pair of 2s. This means the three cards give you more chances to form other winning hands in addition to the single opportunity for a Royal Flush. That is the true value of this hand and why it is the smartest choice of the three.
What is Expected Return in Video Poker and How to Calculate It
Expected return can be described as the average profit you should anticipate over a long period, provided you make a certain decision. The same applies in video poker, where you expect a certain payout whenever you hold or discard specific cards. You may be confused about the difference between expected return and expected value. Simply put, you need to know the expected value in order to calculate expected return.
As we have already discussed, using the proper strategy is very important when playing video poker. The best strategy is the one that offers the highest payout in the long run, i.e., the best expected return. That said, you should not think you will win every hand with the perfect video poker strategy. However, if you know what you are doing, you can expect a very profitable game over time.
If you are holding four cards of the same suit and a fifth card of a different suit in Jacks or Better, several outcomes are possible. In a standard 52-card deck, each suit has 13 cards. Since you have already drawn four of one suit, nine cards remain that can help you form a Flush. If you subtract the five cards in your hand from the 52-card deck, you get 47. This means your odds of forming a Flush on the second draw are 9/47. If you have come across a full-pay version of Jacks or Better, the payout for a Flush will be 6 credits for a single stake. To calculate the expected return, multiply 9/47 by 6, which equals 114.8% or approximately 115%.
| Type of Game | Expected Return |
|---|---|
| All American 35/8 | 99.37% |
| Jacks or Better 9/6 | 99.54% |
| Full Pay Deuces Wild | 100.76% |
| Aces and Eights | 99.78% |
| Aces and Faces | 99.26% |
| Loose Deuces | 101.6% |
| Joker Poker | 100.64% |
| 9/6 Bonus Poker Deluxe | 99.64% |
| Tens or Better | 99.02% |
| Deuces and Joker Wild | 99.07% |
| 2 Ways Royal | 99.80% |
| Double Joker Poker | 99.97% |
Expected Return Additional TipsWhen discussing expected return, we must also mention the payback percentage. Simply put, this is the money you should expect to receive from playing video poker, or any other casino game, over an extended period. For instance, if you see a game with a payback percentage of 92%, players will receive 92% back in the long run and the casino will keep the remaining 8%. That said, you should be realistic and understand that you will not win exactly $92 on every $100 you wager. However, if you play with perfect strategy over a long period, you should achieve this payback.
If you look at a strategy chart, you will see the expected return for the different possible moves when you draw the hand from the example above. Naturally, when using a strategy, you should choose the decision that offers the highest possible expected return.
Video Poker Calculators
When you play video poker, every possible combination of five cards dealt on the first deal provides a maximum payout you can receive. While calculating all the possibilities was once complicated, nowadays there are calculators and software that help players estimate the expected return.
If you are determined to become an expert on video poker and always be aware of the expected return for every possible move, you can use various online calculators. All you need to know when using one is the payouts the game offers, and the calculator will show you the exact game’s expected return.
Such calculators can be very useful when players are comparing different video poker games and are trying to find the one that offers the best payouts. Thanks to these online calculators, you can also quickly find the full-pay variation of any video poker game.
In addition to calculators, there is also software known as trainers. They allow you to recreate any variation of the game and see the possibilities for every type of hand. Usually, such trainers are set by default to 9/6 Jacks or Better, which is the game’s full-pay option. However, you can easily choose another video poker variation and set different payouts for certain hands. This will allow players to see the data that corresponds exactly to the game they are playing. The video poker trainer also allows you to choose between Random Mode and Hard Mode. Because video poker players are not all the same and may seek different experiences, the trainer is suitable for a wide range of fans.
Video Poker Calculators Additional TipsWhen you select Random Mode, the trainer will deal five random cards and let you decide which to hold and which to discard. Once you are done with your decision, the trainer will show you if you have made any mistakes and will provide the best possible play for the specific hand. Whenever you make the wrong decision, the trainer will show you the expected return for the hand you chose and the best possible expected return for the correct hand.
Hard Mode presents hands that are more complicated, and even expert players might have difficulty deciding on the correct move. Regardless of your decision, the trainer will show you the hand that offers the best possible expected return.
Conclusion
Understanding expected value and expected return is very important if you are interested in video poker strategies and want to learn the optimal move for each hand. These terms allow you to compare various options and make the most profitable decision. However, you should not assume that the highest return will always guarantee a win. In the long run, though, you can expect to achieve the return that a particular game provides.
Because it is difficult to memorize or calculate the expected return for every hand in each video poker variation, online calculators and trainers can make everything easier. Thanks to this software, you can quickly compare games with different payouts and learn the most profitable move in every hand.
If you have ever wondered what differentiates a rookie video poker player from an expert, it is the knowledge of expected value and expected return. Players who understand these terms and know how to apply them have an easier time learning the perfect strategy and can enjoy exciting, rewarding gameplay.