Rookie blackjack players commonly wonder whether table seat position affects their odds of winning and we shall address this subject in today’s article. There is no one answer to this question as the relevance of where you sit at the blackjack table is closely related to whether you are a basic strategy player or use more advanced techniques like card counting.
This topic has been hotly debated for years, so much so that it has given rise to various superstitions, not to mention tons of ill advice. Some players avoid certain table seats like the plague because they are convinced they bring them bad luck.
Others fight shy of given seat positions out of fear fellow players would blame them for ‘taking the dealer’s bust card’ and causing the entire table to lose the round. So is there any truth to these sentiments and does seat position matter in blackjack? Stay with us to find out. But first, we shall start with a brief revision of the terminology for table positions in blackjack.
Key Positions at the Blackjack Table
Live blackjack tables typically have a semicircular shape and can accommodate up to seven seated players, although most live dealer variants allow you to bet behind (i.e. bet on other participants’ hands) when there are no vacant seats.
There are three key positions at the blackjack table and all of them borrow their names from baseball. Those three seats in relation to the dealer are as follows:
To our knowledge, there is no specific terminology for the other positions despite the fact blackjack tables can accommodate more than three players at a time.
Other Players’ Decisions Have No Impact on Your Odds
Some people wrongfully assume the decisions of players seated in the first-base and third-base positions can affect the odds of the entire table. The first base, they reason, sets the tone for any given round, while incorrect playing decisions from the third base can improve the dealer’s winning chances.
An Example of Rookies ‘Messing Things Up’ for the Entire Table
Software Simulations Proof
Confirmation Bias Is Common among Gamblers
How Table Position Can Help Basic Strategy Players
An Example of Rookies ‘Messing Things Up’ for the Entire Table
Timid and unversed players commonly avoid these seats out of fear their decisions can provoke the ire of the whole table. Suppose, for example, a rookie misplays a hard 13 against the dealer’s 6, deciding to hit rather than stand as basic strategy suggests. The rookie pulls out a ten and bust as a result.
The dealer then flips over another ten for a hard 16, hits, and receives a five for a total of 21, subsequently outdrawing all unbusted players at the table. Everyone turns sour at the rookie, accusing them of causing the mass loss. Had this clueless novice stood as was the correct thing to do in this situation, they would not have taken the dealer’s bust card, right?
Software Simulations Proof
Wrong. The truth of the matter is the poor playing decisions of fellow patrons have no bearing on your long-term odds of winning. Various software simulations have proven this line of reasoning is incorrect, including one conducted by gaming expert and analyst Michael Shackleford, better known under the alias the Wizard of Odds.
Shackleford ran a computer simulation on a standard US-style blackjack variation that offered the following playing conditions:
- 6 full decks in play
- The dealer must stand on soft 17
- Players can double on any initial card total
- Doubling down after splits is permitted
- Players have the option to surrender late
- Resplitting is possible to a maximum of four hands
The gaming expert tuned the software so that it simulated two people who played strictly in line with basic strategy during the first 1.6 billion hands. As it turned out, they both ended up having approximately the same negative expected value (EV) regardless of who made playing decisions first.
- Basic strategy player A recorded a negative EV of -0.289%
- Basic strategy player B had a negative EV of -0.288%
Another simulation was then run, this time with approximately one billion hands, where player A continued to use perfect basic strategy, while player B, who was the second to act, incorrectly deviated from it in the following cases:
- Player B split all pairs
- Player B never took advantage of the late surrender option against solid dealer upcards
- Player B never doubled down on any soft starting totals (like soft 15, soft 16, and soft 17 against the dealer’s 5 or 6)
- Player B doubled down on starting totals 9 through 11 no matter what upcard the dealer exposed
- Player B hit all hard totals of 12 through 16
Anyone with at least a rudimentary knowledge of blackjack basic strategy would immediately notice these are very poor playing decisions right there.
So if other players’ bad moves indeed had a negative impact on the overall winning odds of the table, player A would have suffered a significant decline in terms of EV, right? The results of this second computer simulation tell us otherwise.
- The expected value of player A remained virtually the same at -0.28%.
- Player B’s nonsensical decisions led to a considerable decline in his own expected value, causing it to slump from -0.29% to -11.26%.
As the results of the two simulations clearly indicate, other patrons only hurt themselves when misplaying their hands. Right or wrong, their decisions do not reduce the long-term expectation of the entire table as some players incorrectly assume.
Confirmation Bias Is Common among Gamblers
A bad play can just as easily help the table as basic strategy players have no knowledge of the composition of the cards that remain to be dealt. Their decisions are based solely on their starting totals and the denomination of the dealer’s exposed card.
To proceed with the example from earlier, suppose the cards were reversed. The hypothetical rookie player seated in third base still hit his hard 13 against the dealer’s 6 but himself pulled the 5 for a total of 18.
The dealer would have then drawn the 10 to her hard 16 and busted instead, with the entire table rejoicing at her loss. Few people, if any, would have congratulated the third-base player for ‘saving’ the table with his incorrect decision, however.
This is a classic example of confirmation bias many ignorant gamblers exhibit. People tend to look for, interpret, and remember mostly the information that validates their existing beliefs. Our minds trick us so that we often pick out the information that confirms our own views and ignore the rest.
How Table Position Can Help Basic Strategy Players
Table position is relevant to recreational players only to the extent they have mastered basic strategy. If you are just learning the correct plays, sitting in third base or near it (seats №5 or №6, for example) gives you a slight advantage because you will have more time to analyze your total against the dealer’s exposed card before you make a move.
Taking the first-base seat will result in the opposite. First-base players are expected to act on their hands immediately after the initial deal, having less time for hand analysis.
Making decisions in a hurry, especially in the absence of sufficient experience, could potentially result in more playing errors and decrease your expectation.
Table Position Is Relevant for Card Counters Only
Seasoned basic strategy players should experience no issues during their gaming sessions regardless of which seat they occupy at the live tables. Seat position could only matter for advantage players who know how to count cards.
Counters Get More Information from Third Base
Glimpsing the Dealer’s Hole Card from First Base
Counters Get More Information from Third Base
Some card counters prefer to sit at third base as this position allows them to gain more information about the composition of the remaining cards. Seeing the hands others have received allows advantage players to make slightly better-informed playing decisions. Additionally, this position makes it easier to keep track of the cards compared to the shortstop, for example. You get a clear view of everyone’s hands without having to constantly rotate your head left to right to see the other dealt cards. Scanning the table back and forth is a tell-tale sign of counting and could get you into trouble with the management.
With that said, your position makes no measurable difference from a mathematical standpoint in terms of expected value when you play shoe games dealt out of multiple decks. Being the last to act while counting cards slightly improves your expectation in double-deck blackjack, adding 1% to 2% to your EV.
A word of caution, though. Seasoned dealers, floor managers, and pit bosses are well-aware that advantage players prefer the third-base spot and tend to keep a close watch on this position. When you count cards, perhaps you should consider sitting elsewhere if you want to avoid unwanted scrutiny and potential detection.
Glimpsing the Dealer’s Hole Card from First Base
Due to the higher risk of detection associated with third base, some savvy counters prefer to take the first-base seat. They could sometimes catch a glimpse of the dealer’s hole card from this position, if careful, and this knowledge gives them a decisive advantage.
Also, rookie counters are often more comfortable playing from the first base because they can partially control the pace of the game. The dealer must wait for the first base to make playing decisions before she can move on to the next player. This gives novice counters enough time to correctly update their running count.
A rookie counter in the third-base seat is more susceptible to counting errors. Suppose, for example, the first-base player hits immediately after the initial deal, busts, and loses. The dealer would take their cards off the table right away and the novice counter might get behind on the running count, committing costly playing mistakes as a result.
To wrap things up, mathematically it makes very little difference where you sit even if you count cards. There are more effective ways to improve your long-term expectation through advantage play. These include accurate running-to-true-count conversion, adequate bet sizing in relation to the count, and using playing deviations to maximize your advantage against the house.
