Card counting is an advantage play technique that enables sharp blackjack players to gain a long-term edge over the house. It involves tracking the ratio of high to low cards as they are dealt out by assigning value tags to different card denominations. The surplus of high cards is good for the players, while the prevalence of low cards helps the dealer.
The technique is not as difficult to master as the uninitiated think. Contrary to popular belief, card counters do not have to memorize each card that has been played out or be autistic savants like Dustin Hoffman’s character in Rain Man.
The only qualities required for mastering this technique are patience, discipline, tenacity, and some basic arithmetic skills. Any committed blackjack player can learn to count cards but most fail to generate long-term profits because they make way too many blunders at the tables.
So today, we shall spend some time discussing the most common mistakes rookie counters commit. Check them out if you are new to card counting as they may ultimately make the difference between losing and winning in the long run.
What follows is based on the premise you are already familiar with the rules of blackjack and how card counting works. If otherwise, we encourage you to take a step back and go through the basics of
multi-deck card counting to learn the basics of this advantage play technique.
Mistake #1 - Using a Very Complicated Counting System
Card counting gained notoriety in the early 1960s when mathematician and blackjack researcher Edward Thorp unveiled the first point count system in his revolutionary book Beat the Dealer. Multiple card counting systems have emerged since then and blackjack experts typically group them into four main categories, Level I, Level II, Level III, and Level IV.
Card Value |
Hi-Lo |
Hi-Opt II |
Wong Halves |
Red Seven |
Revere 14 Count |
Ace |
-1 |
0 |
-1 |
-1 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
0.5 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
1.5 |
1 |
4 |
6 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
7 |
0 |
1 |
0.5 |
0 or +1* |
1 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
0 |
0 |
-0.5 |
0 |
-2 |
10, K, Q, J |
-1 |
-2 |
-1 |
-1 |
-3 |
Level |
Level I |
Level II |
Level III |
Level I |
Level IV |
Balanced/Unbalanced |
Balanced |
Balanced |
Balanced |
Unbalanced |
Balanced |
*The Red Seven system keeps a side count of the sevens. Sevens of diamonds and hearts count as +1, whereas the sevens of clubs and spades count as 0.
Complex Systems Are More Efficient
Complex System Could Result in More Errors
Stick to the Good Old Hi-Lo
Complex Systems Are More Efficient
There are many other systems out there, apart from those listed in the table above. Some rookie counters mistakenly assume that if they choose a more complex system like Hi-Opt II or Wong Halves, they will make more money. The reasoning behind this assumption is that more complex counting systems deliver better results because they are more accurate and thus, more efficient.
Complex System Could Result in More Errors
However, their improved accuracy comes at a cost as those who use them often end up making costly playing and counting mistakes that decrease their expected return in the long run. Besides, the difference in efficiency is not all that great. For example, the Revere 14 count has a playing efficiency (PE) of 0.65, compared to the much simpler Hi-Lo where the PE stands at 0.51.
Stick to the Good Old Hi-Lo
Most multi-level strategies are overkill, especially in the live casino environment where counters face numerous distractions. We recommend novice counters to master and stick to the good old Hi Lo system. It is far more simple, leads to fewer errors, and delivers satisfactory enough results over the long term. Many professional blackjack teams have used it over the years to great success, including the MIT Team, the Church Team, and the Hyland Team.
Mistake #3 – Counting Games with Poor Playing Conditions
Savvy players always familiarize themselves with the playing conditions a given table has to offer before they take a seat. We have heard some counters argue they play subpar games for lack of choice as there are no casinos with friendlier conditions in their vicinity.
However, we consider this a flimsy excuse as the main (or should we say the “only”) purpose of card counters is to generate positive expected value.
If the conditions in your local casinos prevent you from doing this, you will be better off not playing at all. Otherwise you are just throwing your money away with both hands. Smart players will never settle for the rules we list below:
- No doubling after splitting pairs
- No doubling on soft hands
- Doubling only on two-card totals of 9, 10, and 11
- Splitting only once to a maximum of two hands
- The dealer hits soft 17 rather than standing
- Even money payouts for blackjacks
- 6 to 5 payouts for blackjacks
- Insufficient shoe penetration
If you play multiple-deck games, you should never bother with tables where the dealer does not give you a deep enough penetration. Avoid games where the cut-card penetration is 50% or less as you will only be wasting your time and money. You need a combination of friendly enough rules and a shoe penetration of at least 75% to count multi-deck games efficiently.
Mistake #4 – Confusing True Count with Running Count
This is another widespread mistake among rookie counters who have not practiced sufficiently before attacking the tables in a real casino environment. As is to be expected, this blunder has a devastating effect on their long-term expected value.
If you are reading this, perhaps you already know what the difference between running and true count is, but we shall revise it briefly for the uninitiated.
You make playing and betting decisions based on the true count and should never confuse it with the running count. This is how one such mistake looks and we assure you the consequences of making it will not be pretty. The example below is derived from a blackjack game that plays with six decks in total.
This is a grave not to mention a very costly mistake as one such player would continue to size their bets and deviate from basic strategy incorrectly based on an inaccurate count. If you ever catch yourself doing this, try to repeat the current running count in your mind to prevent yourself from replacing it with the true count.
Mistake #5 - Overbetting and Underbetting
And finally we arrive at the subject of bet sizing and betting proportionately to your bankroll. Here it is important to mention that overbetting and underbetting are both equally detrimental for the advantage player.
Overbetting Your Bankroll
Underbetting Your Bankroll
Overbetting Your Bankroll
You cannot expect to join a $20 blackjack table with a session bankroll of $200 and come out ahead. A smart card counter never overestimates their advantage. Remember that a high true count is no guarantee you will win.
Positive true counts do not yield that big of an advantage in most cases, so you might as well lose at the end of a hot shoe due to variance. You will surely win once you clock in enough hours but there is no guarantee you will emerge a winner in the short term.
Underbetting Your Bankroll
Underbetting your bankroll is just as bad for your long-term success as a card counter. Some rookie counters are afraid to push out the large bets when the count demands it because they fear losing large amounts of money in one fell swoop. The sad reality is underbetting will ultimately cost them money over the long run.
Others underbet out of fear of detection, and we cannot help but admit casino backoffs are indeed a very unpleasant experience. With that said, the house has the advantage most of the time. Counters must push out enough money during the rare moments when the edge swings in their favor to generate a profit.