5 Widespread Mistakes in Blackjack Card Counting

Card counting is an advantage-play technique that allows skilled blackjack players to gain a long-term edge over the house. It involves tracking the ratio of high to low cards as they are dealt, assigning value tags to the different card denominations. A surplus of high cards favors the players, while an abundance of low cards benefits the dealer.

The technique is not as difficult to master as the uninitiated think. Contrary to popular belief, card counters do not have to memorize every card that has been dealt, nor must they be autistic savants like Dustin Hoffman’s character in Rain Man.

The only qualities required for mastering this technique are patience, discipline, tenacity, and some basic arithmetic skills. Any committed blackjack player can learn to count cards, but most fail to generate long-term profits because they make far too many blunders at the tables.

Today, we will discuss the most common mistakes rookie counters commit. Check them out if you are new to card counting, as they may ultimately make the difference between losing and winning in the long run.

Mistake #1 - Using a Very Complicated Counting System

Card counting gained notoriety in the early 1960s when mathematician and blackjack researcher Edward Thorp introduced the first point count system in his groundbreaking book Beat the Dealer. Many card-counting systems have appeared since then, and blackjack experts usually group them into four main categories: Level I, Level II, Level III, and Level IV.

1Level I Systems

Level I systems assign the tags +1, 0, and -1, so counters add or subtract only 1 and treat neutral cards as zero. Hi-Lo is the most popular and widely used Level I system for blackjack.

2Level II Systems

Level II systems employ additional tags, assigning card values of +1, -1, +2, -2, or 0. Although more accurate than Level I, they are harder to master. Both Hi-Opt II and Omega II fall into this subcategory.

3Level III and Level IV Systems

Level III and Level IV systems are even more complex because they use a greater range of counting tags. The exact tag values vary depending on whether the system is balanced or unbalanced.

As already noted, a distinction is made between balanced and unbalanced systems. The difference between these two subtypes is as follows:

4Balanced Counting Systems

In balanced counting systems, the count starts and ends at 0 when you run through a full deck of cards.

5Unbalanced Counting Systems

In unbalanced counting systems, the count starts at a number other than zero, such as -2 or -4. They usually include a pivot point that signals when players should begin increasing their bets. The Red Seven system is a common unbalanced example.

Card Value	Hi-Lo	Hi-Opt II	Wong Halves	Red Seven	Revere 14 Count
Ace	-1	0	-1	-1	0
2	1	1	0.5	1	2
3	1	1	1	1	2
4	1	2	1	1	3
5	1	2	1.5	1	4
6	1	1	1	1	2
7	0	1	0.5	0 or +1*	1
8	0	0	0	0	0
9	0	0	-0.5	0	-2
10, K, Q, J	-1	-2	-1	-1	-3
Level	Level I	Level II	Level III	Level I	Level IV
Balanced/Unbalanced	Balanced	Balanced	Balanced	Unbalanced	Balanced

*The Red Seven system keeps a side count of the sevens. Sevens of diamonds and hearts count as +1, whereas the sevens of clubs and spades count as 0.

Complex Systems Are More Efficient

Complex System Could Result in More Errors

Stick to the Good Old Hi-Lo

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Complex Systems Are More Efficient

There are many other systems beyond those listed in the table above. Some rookie counters mistakenly assume that choosing a more complex system such as Hi-Opt II or Wong Halves will earn them more money. They believe that greater complexity yields better results because the counts are more accurate and therefore more efficient.

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Complex System Could Result in More Errors

However, this improved accuracy comes at a price, as players who use these methods often make costly playing and counting mistakes that reduce their expected return over the long term. Moreover, the efficiency gap is not that wide. For instance, the Revere 14 Count has a playing efficiency (PE) of 0.65, whereas the much simpler Hi-Lo posts a PE of 0.51.

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Stick to the Good Old Hi-Lo

Most multi-level strategies are overkill, especially in live casino settings where counters face numerous distractions. We recommend that novice counters learn and stick to the good old Hi-Lo system. It is much simpler, leads to fewer errors, and delivers sufficiently strong results over the long term. Many professional blackjack teams have used it with great success, including the MIT Team, the Church Team, and the Hyland Team.

Mistake #3 – Counting Games with Poor Playing Conditions

Savvy players always familiarize themselves with the playing conditions a given table offers before they take a seat. We have heard some counters argue that they play subpar games due to a lack of choice, as there are no casinos with friendlier conditions nearby.

However, we consider this a flimsy excuse, as the main (or should we say the “only”) purpose of card counters is to generate positive expected value.

If the conditions in your local casinos prevent you from doing this, you will be better off not playing at all. Otherwise, you are just throwing your money away with both hands. Smart players will never settle for the rules we list below:

• No doubling after splitting pairs
• No doubling on soft hands
• Doubling only on two-card totals of 9, 10, and 11
• Splitting only once to a maximum of two hands
• The dealer hits soft 17 rather than standing
• Even money payouts for blackjacks
• 6 to 5 payouts for blackjacks
• Insufficient shoe penetration

Mistake #4 – Confusing True Count with Running Count

This is another widespread mistake among rookie counters who have not practiced sufficiently before attacking the tables in a real casino environment. As is to be expected, this blunder has a devastating effect on their long-term expected value.

If you are reading this, you probably already know the difference between the running count and the true count, but we will review it briefly for those who do not.

You make playing and betting decisions based on the true count, and you should never confuse it with the running count. Here is how such a mistake unfolds, and we assure you the consequences will not be pretty. The example below comes from a six-deck blackjack game.

Mistake #5 - Overbetting and Underbetting

Finally, we arrive at the subject of bet sizing and wagering in proportion to your bankroll. It is important to note that both overbetting and underbetting are equally detrimental to an advantage player.

Overbetting Your Bankroll

Underbetting Your Bankroll

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Overbetting Your Bankroll

You cannot expect to sit down at a $20 blackjack table with a session bankroll of $200 and consistently come out ahead. A smart card counter never overestimates their edge. Remember, a high true count is not a guarantee of victory.

Positive true counts do not provide a huge advantage in most cases, so you could still lose a hot shoe because of variance. You will almost certainly show a profit once you log enough hours, but there is no guarantee you will finish ahead in the short term.

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Underbetting Your Bankroll

Underbetting your bankroll is just as damaging to your long-term success as overbetting. Some rookie counters are afraid to put out large bets when the count calls for it because they fear losing a significant amount of money in one blow. The unfortunate truth is that underbetting will ultimately cost them money over time.

Others underbet out of fear of detection, and we admit that casino back-offs are an unpleasant experience. That said, the house holds the edge most of the time. Counters must wager enough during the rare moments when the advantage swings in their favor to generate a profit.