Countable Baccarat Side Bets

B. Atanasov
Boris Atanasov is an iGaming writer with over four years’ experience, creating engaging content on slots, video poker, roulette, and blackjack.
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Most people associate card counting with blackjack, which is understandable, considering savvy gamblers have been using this technique to beat the game of twenty-one for over half a century. Blackjack is not the only casino game susceptible to this form of advantage play, however.

Baccarat is also countable, but most gamblers are either unaware of this or consider counting the game a waste of time because it yields a shockingly low value when it is applied to the two base wagers (Player and Banker).

On the positive side, baccarat offers a proliferation of exploitable side bets that can produce better long-term profits. Before we get there, let’s examine what makes baccarat susceptible to advantage play and the prerequisites for counting baccarat side wagers.

What Makes Baccarat Side Bets Susceptible to Card Counting?

What Makes Baccarat Side Bets Susceptible to Card CountingSince you are reading this, we assume you already know the basic rules of baccarat. If this is not the case, we suggest you go back and familiarize yourself with the card values, the main betting options, and the drawing tableau.

Returning to the topic, advantage play opportunities arise with baccarat side bets because of several peculiarities inherent in this card game. We cover them briefly below.

Advantage Play Opportunities

1Deeper penetration

Most baccarat games offer deeper penetration than blackjack. The game is usually dealt from a shoe containing eight full decks of cards. Some dealers place the cut card half a deck from the end of the shoe. Sometimes the cut is so deep that only a few cards remain unseen before the reshuffle.

2High limits on side wagers

Many baccarat tables impose significantly higher limits on side wagers than those in blackjack. In this high-roller card game, it is not unusual to find tables where side bets exceed one hundred dollars. This peculiarity, combined with the large payouts for winning side bets, can allow counters to earn substantial profits when the opportunity arises.

3Scorecards

Baccarat players are allowed, and even encouraged, to use scorecards at the table to record previous results, which can help them keep track of the cards. This is not the case in blackjack, where players may use only basic strategy cards.

4Easily track the cards

Unlike blackjack, baccarat games proceed at a much slower pace, which benefits card counters by allowing them to track the cards easily, even when they use more complicated counting systems.

5Key cards

Lastly, almost all side wagers in baccarat revolve around specific ‘key’ cards, which makes them vulnerable to counting. Shrewd players can exploit these bets when the remaining shoe is rich in key cards, such as sevens.

Key Cards to Track When Counting Baccarat Side Bets

Key Cards to TrackAs we mentioned earlier, baccarat side bets can provide great opportunities for the advantage player because they are based on certain key cards. You have better chances of placing a winning side bet if the remaining shoe is rich in those key cards.

The key cards differ depending on the type of side bet you plan to place. Here are a couple of examples that come to mind.

1

Some side bets require a specific final total to win, regardless of how many cards are dealt. In these cases, the key cards that help advantage players have the same denomination as the winning total. For instance, sevens are the key cards to track when you want to place a ‘Tie on 7’ side wager.

2

Other side bets pay for specific three-card combinations. In these situations, the key cards are usually those with denominations of 9 and 8. The same principle applies to any side bet that involves natural hands.


Countable Baccarat Side Bets

Although counting the primary baccarat bets, such as Player and Banker, is not profitable, many of the game’s side wagers can create opportunities for solid returns through advantage play. Below, we examine several common baccarat side bets and discuss the expected value of counting them.


The Super 6 Side Bet

1The Super 6 Side Bet Overview

The Super 6 side wager is often offered in baccarat variations that charge no commission on winning Banker hands. This side bet pays at elevated odds of 15 to 1 whenever the Banker wins the round with a final total of 6, hence the name Super 6.

2House Edge and Hit Frequency

The house edge for this side wager in an eight-deck game is 13.82%. The bet hits 5.39% of the time. If you intend to count the Super 6 bet, keep the following points in mind.

  • The Banker cannot prevail over the Player if the round ends with a natural.
  • A shoe depleted of 9s and 8s benefits counters looking to profit from the Super 6 side wager.
  • An excess of 6s in the remaining shoe improves the odds of winning with the Super 6 bet.
  • If neither side has a natural after the initial deal, the baccarat tableau requires the Player to draw a third card on starting totals of 5 or less. The Player must receive a third card when the Banker has a total of 6. A 7 could help the Player outdraw the Banker in this case, so a shoe depleted of 7s is good for those who count this side bet.

3Counting System for the Super 6 Bet

Based on these observations, gambling expert and retired mathematics professor Eliot Jacobson proposed a counting system for the Super 6 bet that assigns the following tag values to the cards.

  • Kings, Queens, Jacks, and 10s are counted as -1
  • 9s, 8s, and 7s are counted as +4
  • 6s are counted as -8
  • Aces, 2s, 3s, 4s, and 5s are counted as 0

Professor Jacobson then ran a computer simulation involving 100 million baccarat shoes, each with eight full decks, to test the system’s efficiency. The simulated games offered very deep penetration because the cut card was inserted fourteen cards from the end of the shoe.

The results showed that a player can win approximately 0.27 betting units per hundred hands when using the system described above. It may not sound particularly impressive, but remember that there is a significant house edge to overcome with the Super 6 side bet.


The Dragon 7 Side Bet

1The Dragon 7 Side Bet Overview

Dragon 7 is a side wager that pays enhanced odds of 40 to 1 if the Banker wins the round with three cards that add up to a total of 7, as in a 2/2/3 combination. The bet loses in all other situations.

2House Edge and Hit Frequency

At standard baccarat tables with eight full decks, the house edge for the Dragon 7 bet is 7.61%. The wager has a low hit frequency, winning approximately 2.25% of the time and losing the remaining 97.75%.

Relying solely on intuition, one might assume that a shoe rich in 7s and zero-value cards like K, Q, J, and 10 improves the odds of winning this bet. Under such conditions, the Banker is more likely to start with 10/10 and draw to a three-card 7 with 10/10/7.

However, this reasoning is incorrect. The main prerequisite for winning this side wager is the Banker drawing a third card. Cards with denominations of 9 and 8 are the most likely to prevent this. Their absence from the shoe can help the side bettor.

The opposite is true for smaller cards like aces through 7s. They are more likely to help the Banker achieve a three-card total of 7. The Banker must draw a third card more often when starting with low totals of 0 through 3.

Cards with lower denominations, specifically 4 through 7, are the most likely to produce a three-card total of 7. Therefore, an excess of lower cards (4, 5, 6, and 7) and a depletion of high cards (9 and 8) benefit players who count the Dragon 7 wager.

3Counting System for the Dragon 7 Bet

Contrary to intuition, removing zero-value cards from the shoe also benefits advantage players. Based on this insight, gambling expert Eliot Jacobson devised another system specifically for counting this side bet. The player should wait until the true count reaches +4 before betting on Dragon 7 at an advantage.

  • Kings, Queens, Jacks, Aces, 10s, 2s, and 3s have a tag value of 0.
  • 4s, 5s, 6s, and 7s are counted as -1.
  • 9s and 8s are counted as +2.

You may wonder why the 2s and 3s have tags of zero when their excess favors side bettors. This is due to the effect of card removal (EOR). The value of these small cards diminishes because they help the Banker draw to a total of seven in fewer situations than cards 4 through 7.

What is the benefit of using this system? A simulation of 200 million shoes with eight decks shows it can earn you 0.74 betting units per hundred hands. The dealer must again place the cut card fourteen cards from the end of the shoe.


The Easy 6 Side Bet

1The Easy 6 Side Bet Overview

The Easy 6 is another vulnerable optional bet that counters can exploit to gain an edge over the house. The wager wins whenever the Player or Banker finishes the round with a score of six, or when the round ties at six. The bet pays 6 to 1 and carries a lower house edge than the previous two wagers, as you will see shortly.

2House Edge and Hit Frequency

The Easy 6 gives the house an advantage of 5.04%, meaning the average player will lose about five cents for every dollar wagered. In addition to the lower house edge, the wager has a higher hit frequency, winning roughly 13.56% of the time.

3Card Counting System for the Easy 6 Side Bet

An excess of high-value cards such as 9s, 8s, and 7s is detrimental to players who make this bet because these cards can easily push the hand over the desired total of 6. Conversely, 6s are the most valuable denomination for side bettors.

Therefore, you should track 6s, 7s, 9s, and 8s when aiming to profit from the Easy 6 through counting. The remaining denominations have negligible removal effects and are not worth tracking. One straightforward system suggests assigning the following tag values to the key cards in an eight-deck game:

  • Each 6 is counted as -3.
  • 9s, 8s, and 7s receive tags of +1.

The triggering count is +2, meaning you should avoid playing the Easy 6 on counts of +1 or lower. Using the system above gives players an average advantage of 5.73%, earning about 0.66 betting units per hour. For context, this equals roughly $66 per hour if you wager $100 on the Easy 6 when the true count is at least +2.

These hourly profits apply to games where the dealer cuts off only fourteen cards from the end of the shoe. If one full deck is cut off, your expected value drops to 0.22 units, or $22 per hour.

Conclusion

ConclusionBefore you head over to your favorite online or land-based casino to test these strategies, remember that they yield satisfactory results only when certain playing conditions have been met. You need sufficient penetration to earn healthy profits from counting side bets in baccarat.

The shallower the cut-card placement is, the less expected value you can anticipate in the long term. Do not bother trying to count side bets at online live baccarat tables that use continuous shuffling machines, because these give you no penetration whatsoever.