Blackjack players have been looking for ways to improve their winning odds for decades. Countless strategies have surfaced over the years as a result. The bad news is that most of them are inefficient and work to the player’s detriment, increasing rather than reducing the house edge.
One popular approach some people adopt is the so-called “mimic the dealer” strategy. The name itself indicates what this strategy is about, i.e., the player abides by the fixed house rules the dealer is required to follow.
People who decide to give this approach a try usually reason, “The dealer seems to beat me all the time. Maybe if I mimic their plays, I will have a level playing field with the dealer?”
The question is, does this strategy work? If not, what causes its inefficiency? In this article, SuperCasinoSites provides the answers and tackles the main faults of this approach. It also features several other flawed strategies to avoid, along with the tactics that effectively reduce the house edge.
The Mimic the Dealer strategy is extremely simple and can be implemented in both online and land-based blackjack games. All you have to do is follow the same fixed rules of play as your dealer. Of course, some of these vary from one casino to the next, but here is a brief recap of how to play like a blackjack dealer.
- You must always hit totals of 16 or under.
- You must stand on all totals of 17 or higher*.
- You should never take insurance.
- You can only make plays the dealer is allowed to make, which means no doubling down or splitting pairs.
- You cannot surrender your hands.
*We would like to remind players that there are variations in the dealer standing rules. S17 games require the dealer to stand on all totals of 17, while at H17 tables the dealer stands on hard 17 but hits soft 17. The S17 rule favors the player, so if you really do intend to play like a dealer, you should always hit soft totals of 17. That is all there is to this approach.
At first glance, playing this way seems like the smart thing to do because the house has an advantage over players. It follows that the house representative is playing in a manner that enables the house to maintain its edge, right? No, not really. Read on to learn why.
Mimicking the Dealer Strategy and Its Impact on the House Edge
To understand why mimicking the dealer is ineffective, you must first grasp how the house gains its edge in blackjack. Of course, you should also know how to play blackjack correctly in the first place.
Recreational blackjack players generally fall into three distinct categories. Some follow their intuition when playing their hands, which is essentially guessing. Others rely on strategies such as the mimicking-the-dealer approach. The third group uses basic strategy, the only mathematically sound way to reduce the house edge in blackjack, but more on this later.
When asked how the casino gains its advantage, most people say the house edge stems from players not knowing how to play their hands. This is partially true because the house edge grows when you hit, stand, split, or double on gut instinct. However, there is more to it than players guessing how to act on their hands.
The Double Bust Rule
Mimicking the Dealer Will Cost You a Lot over the Long Haul
Player Advantages over the Dealer
The Double Bust Rule
The house edge in blackjack originates from one simple rule: players must act on their hands before the dealer plays theirs. This may not sound significant, but it gives the casino a built-in advantage that is impossible to overcome unless you count cards or use other advanced techniques.
Because you must act first, if you bust (i.e., go over 21) you automatically lose, regardless of whether the dealer busts afterward. Your bet is already gone even if other players at the table win their wagers. You do not get your money back if the dealer busts subsequently.
Casino operators understood the mathematics of the game when they first brought it to their floors. The house advantage stems not only from poor playing decisions; it also arises from the way the game is designed.
Mimicking the Dealer Will Cost You a Lot over the Long Haul
Following the dealer’s hitting and standing rules can devastate an uninformed player’s bankroll because it creates a house edge of roughly 5% to 6%. By comparison, a player who uses basic strategy faces a casino advantage of less than 1%, a substantial difference.
What does this difference mean in terms of hourly losses? Let’s find out. Assume you wager $25 per hand and play 100 rounds per hour while using basic strategy, giving the house an edge of 0.5%. Your expected hourly loss is 0.005 x 100 x $25 = $12.50.
Of course, you will not lose exactly this amount after one hour. You will win some hands and lose others, but over a large enough sample, your average loss will hover around $12.50 per hour. The 0.5% house edge will inevitably prevail.
This is why casinos are never concerned about patrons’ short-term wins and instead encourage them to play as long as possible. They know the math of the game will eventually prevail, ensuring players lose in the long run.
Now consider what happens when you mimic the dealer’s rules. You still bet $25 per hand and play 100 rounds per hour, but you now face a 6% house edge.
Your expected long-term loss per hour jumps to 0.06 x 100 x $25 = $150. That figure is 12 times higher than what you would lose against a 0.5% edge with a sound strategy. It is easy to see why mimicking the dealer is a poor way to play blackjack.
Player Advantages over the Dealer
Fortunately, things are not as grim because casinos have incorporated several rules that actually help blackjack players. Otherwise, everyone would quickly lose their shirts and quit playing the game. Patrons can choose from a range of options that are unavailable to the dealer. We outline them below.
- Unlike dealers, players may double down when in advantageous situations, such as holding two-card totals of 9, 10, or 11 against a dealer who shows weak cards like 4, 5, or 6. Doing so allows the player to extract more value from these favorable spots. The more flexible the house rules on doubling down, the better it is for the player.
- The option to split and resplit paired cards also benefits the player and has an effect similar to doubling down, giving them the chance to earn more or improve their odds with otherwise weak hands, such as a pair of 8s.
- Blackjack players may stand on totals of 12 through 16, unlike the dealer, who must always draw to 16 or lower. In certain situations, the S17 rule makes the dealer more likely to bust.
- The ability to surrender a bad hand can be particularly useful because it helps you minimize losses in unfavorable spots. A prime example is being dealt a hard 16 against a dealer’s 9, 10, or Ace. In this case, the best course is to surrender your hard 16 and reclaim half of your original bet.
- When a player wins with a blackjack, they receive a bonus payout of 3 to 2 rather than even money. By contrast, the dealer collects only 1 to 1 (even money) when they beat you with a blackjack. This enhanced payout alone can reduce the house edge by 2.3%. The table below shows the effect of other favorable player rules in blackjack. Percentages may vary slightly depending on the exact house rules and the number of decks in play.
Favorable Rule for the PlayerHouse Edge Reduction in %Correct Splitting Decisions0.4%Correct Hitting Decisions3.5%Correct Standing Decisions3.5%Correct Doubling Down Decisions1.6%3 to 2 Payout for Blackjacks2.3%
Other Flawed Blackjack Strategies to Avoid
If you think mimicking the dealer is a bad strategy, wait until you see the travesties outlined below. All of these strategies and systems have been proven mathematically ineffective and are guaranteed to lead to the downfall of any blackjack player who uses them. Avoid them at all costs, no matter what “experts” claim about their effectiveness.
The No Bust Strategy
Taking Insurance to “Protect” Strong Hands
Progressive Strategies
Assuming the Dealer Always Has a 10 in the Hole
The No Bust Strategy
As we have already established, if you bust you automatically lose, regardless of whether the dealer busts afterward. This fact has led some players to conclude that they should never draw to a hand that could bust. Let’s illustrate why this reasoning is flawed.
Assume you are dealt a ten-value card alongside a 4 for a total of 14 while the dealer shows a 10. You hit (the mathematically correct choice), pull another ten-value card, exceed 21, and lose your bet.
The dealer then flips a 6 for a total of 16. You reason that the dealer would have busted with the 10 if you had stood on your hard 14, so you decide you are better off not drawing to any hand that might bust.
Does this approach increase your win rate? No. It actually has the opposite effect, giving the casino roughly a 4% edge over you. By contrast, you face a house advantage of about 0.5% when you correctly hit totals of 12 through 16 against a dealer with a 7 or higher. In other words, your negative expectation with the No Bust strategy is eight times greater.
Taking Insurance to “Protect” Strong Hands
Most players decline insurance when the dealer shows an ace, but many accept it when they hold strong starting totals like 10 or 11. They believe these hands are worth “protecting”, yet insurance does not improve your chances of beating the dealer.
Insurance is simply a side bet on whether the dealer has a ten-value card in the hole. When you take insurance, you place a second wager equal to half of your initial bet. If the dealer does hold a ten, you win the insurance bet at odds of 2 to 1 but lose your original wager, effectively breaking even on the round.
Statistically, insurance is always a bad bet; in fact, it is one of the worst wagers in the entire casino. It puts you at a huge disadvantage, yielding a house edge of 7.4% in multi-deck games. On average, you can expect to lose roughly $0.74 for every dollar you spend on insurance.
Does that sound like a cost-effective way to “protect” a strong hand? We think not. You should decline insurance unless you are using advanced techniques such as card counting.
Progressive Strategies
Some players rely on strategies that vary their bets according to a progression. Betting decisions are based on the result of the previous hand, meaning how much you wager next depends on whether you won or lost the last one. There are two main types of betting progressions:
- Positive progressions require you to increase your bet after each winning hand and decrease it after a loss. These systems assume the player should maximize profits during a winning streak while minimizing risk during downturns.
- With negative progressions, you increase your wager after every losing hand and decrease it after a win. The premise is that these systems will help players offset long losing streaks.
Sooner or later you will win a hand, and that win will come at such a high stake that it offsets all your previous losses, leaving you with a small profit. The Martingale is the most notorious negative-progression system.
Both types are ineffective and should be avoided. Why? Because the odds of winning your next hand are not affected by the results of previous hands. No progressive system can overcome the house edge in blackjack. They all fail in the long run.
Assuming the Dealer Always Has a 10 in the Hole
According to this strategy, the player should assume the dealer’s hole card is always a ten-value card and make hitting and standing decisions accordingly. For example, when dealt a hard 17 against a dealer showing an 8, such a player would hit rather than stand (despite standing being the mathematically correct decision) because they expect the dealer to flip a 10 for a total of 18.
This strategy is based on the notion that there are more ten-value cards in the shoe than any other value, which supposedly increases the probability that the hole card is a 10.
In reality, the probability that the dealer holds a ten-value card is roughly 30%, while the chance of another value is about 70%. A standard deck contains only 16 ten-value cards.
Cards of other numerical values therefore make up more than ⅔ of the entire deck. This strategy is so flawed that it gives the casino nearly twice the edge compared to the Mimic the Dealer approach.
Strategies That Effectively Reduce or Eliminate the House Edge
All of the strategies listed above, along with mimicking the dealer, have been proven to fail players in the long run. The good news is that blackjack has been analyzed in depth by many mathematicians, who have shown with absolute certainty that there is a right and wrong way to play each hand. Their efforts produced what is known as basic blackjack strategy.
Basic Strategy
Advantage Play Strategies
Basic Strategy
Using basic strategy is the only way to improve your odds of winning at blackjack. It is a set of rules that tell you how to play every possible hand optimally. These rules have been refined over the years through computer simulations and mathematical analysis.
The recommended plays rely on limited information because they consider only the player’s starting two-card total and the dealer’s upcard. Even so, basic strategy can reduce the house edge in blackjack to about 0.5%, a dramatic improvement over the 5% to 6% you face when mimicking the dealer.
Basic strategy is presented as a chart that shows the optimal decision (hit, stand, split, double, or surrender) for any two-card total against any dealer upcard. Its aim is to minimize losses and maximize profits over time. Do not underestimate the value of basic strategy; the fact that even card counters use it underscores how essential it is.
Advantage Play Strategies
Basic strategy can reduce the house edge but cannot overcome it on its own because it assumes a neutral deck. Consequently, you will still lose money in the long run, albeit at a much slower pace. Several advanced techniques, however, can eliminate the house advantage and allow you to profit consistently from your blackjack sessions.
- Card counting is the most widely used advantage-play method in blackjack. This technique exploits the fact that blackjack is a dependent-trials game. Once the shoe is shuffled, the numbers of high and low cards are equal, but the composition changes with every card dealt.An excess of high cards remaining in the shoe favors the player, whereas an excess of low cards favors the dealer. By tracking the cards that leave play, card counters can identify when the advantage swings in their favor and raise their bets accordingly. Conversely, they bet small when the dealer has the edge. Check out our detailed article for more information on how card counting works.
- Shuffle tracking is an advanced technique in which the player follows specific cards or clumps of cards during the dealer’s shuffle to locate them in the next shoe. To employ this method, you must first master basic strategy and card counting. See our article on shuffle tracking for more details.
- Edge sorting is another sophisticated technique that allows blackjack players to identify key cards by spotting asymmetries in the cut patterns on the backs of the cards. However, using this approach is not always possible because casinos often counter it with a procedure known as the “shuffle turn”.
