Playing blackjack for real money, whether online or at land-based casinos, is no picnic. Every decision you make at the table affects your long-term expected value. Even if your basic strategy play is flawless, you are still in a losing position because the rules are adjusted to give the house’s representative, the dealer, a better chance of winning most of the time.
Yet, there are instances in which the advantage swings back to the player. A good blackjack player should be able to recognize these advantageous situations and approach them more aggressively to maximize long-term expected value. Situations that call for a more aggressive approach occur when you are dealt a two-card holding totaling 10 or 11. In most cases, you should press your action on the felt by doubling.
Many inexperienced players understand that there is value in doubling on these hand totals. What they fail to realize is that the correct basic strategy for doubling down on 10 and 11 depends on several other variables besides the hand total. These include the rank of the dealer’s upcard, the house rules at a particular blackjack table, and the number of decks in play. The following article discusses the correct plays for hard totals of 10 and 11 in pitch games and multiple-deck blackjack variations.
Hitting and Doubling on Hard 10
A hard hand total of 10 can result from any of the following two-card combinations: 3-7, 4-6, 2-8, and 5-5. One mistake rookie blackjack players frequently make is splitting their paired 5s. This move is always a bad decision unless you are counting cards and know the composition of the remaining deck or shoe.
Splitting paired 5s when you are a basic strategy player is nonsensical because a total of 10 is one of the most powerful hands you can start with. If you split, you risk pulling two ten-value cards on each of your 5s and end up with a hard 15, which is one of the worst totals you can receive in blackjack. A 15 is too low to stand on, but at the same time too high to hit, because there is a significant chance you will bust by drawing one more card. There are far too many cards that can get you into trouble when you make this move.
A hard total of 10 is always either hit or doubled in both pitch games and multiple-deck blackjack. The correct decision depends on the dealer’s upcard. The number of decks and the house rules are irrelevant in this case. With paired 5s, the basic strategy player should double against dealer upcards 2 through 9 and hit when the dealer shows a ten-value card or an Ace.
Hitting and Doubling on Hard 10 Additional TipsWhat should you do when your hard 10 consists of the other three possible combinations, 2-8, 4-6, and 3-7? Your decision is again based on the dealer’s upcard. In these cases, doubling is recommended when the dealer is in a weaker position with upcards 2 through 9.
Hitting your hard 10 is the correct move against a dealer showing a ten-value card or an Ace. This holds true regardless of how many decks are in play or whether you are on an H17 or an S17 table.
Note that in some situations you will end up with a total of 10 that consists of more than two cards. This happens, for example, when you are dealt 3-4, hit, and draw another trey. Obviously, you cannot double down on a three-card total of 10, so the correct strategy is to take another hit.
Why You Should Never Double on Hard 10 against a Dealer’s 10 or Ace
Doubling with this total against a dealer who exposes a 10 or an Ace is not recommended because these two cards put the house in a very favorable position. Consider the following example. You have a 10 and are facing a dealer with a powerful 10 or an Ace. Let’s examine what happens for each card value you can draw.
You draw a deuce through a 6 and end up with the terrible hard totals of 12 through 16.
You pull a 7 for a hard 17, which is not good enough because the average winning hand in blackjack totals 18.5. There is a good chance you will either push with the dealer or lose if they achieve a better total. Basically, your only hope in this case is for the dealer to bust.
You draw an 8 for a hard 18, which seems good, but it is still below the average winning total in the game.
You draw a 9, 10, or Ace and end up with the very strong totals of 19, 20, or 21.
Only 23 of the remaining 49 cards can get you into the safe zone, while 26 cards leave you with hard totals of 12 through 18 that cannot be improved and are weak enough for the dealer to beat with their 10. This means your chances of improving your hand beyond the average winning total of 18.5 are less than 50 percent, which does not justify doubling against a dealer 10 or Ace. Now, let’s look at the dealer’s possibilities when they start their hand with, say, the Queen of Spades.
The dealer flips over a small card, 2 through 6, and ends up with hard totals of 12 through 16. These are poor totals, but unlike you, the dealer cannot double down and is bound by the house rules to draw until they reach 17 or higher. The chances of the dealer improving their total to at least 17 are around 20 percent in this case.
If the dealer’s down card is a 7 for a hard 17, they push with your 17 or beat the weak totals of 12 through 16.
If the dealer flips an 8 next to the Queen, her hard 18 is still below the average winning total, but it beats all totals of 12 through 17 and pushes with your 18 (if you are lucky enough to reach 18 after doubling).
If the dealer pulls a 9, 10, or Ace next to the Queen of Spades for the excellent totals of 19, 20, or 21, she beats you unless you two push on your potential hands of 19 through 21.
As it turns out, the dealer has a better chance of beating you in this situation, so risking more money by doubling on a 10 against a dealer 10 or Ace makes no sense. The differences in odds may not seem significant, but every percentage counts in the long run.
You will inevitably lose money over time by doubling on a 10 against the dealer’s powerful cards, which is why basic strategy recommends you hit instead. This also allows you to draw another card, preventing you from getting stuck with the terrible hard totals 12 through 16.
Optimal Plays for a Hand Total of 11 in Pitch Games
A starting hand totaling 11 puts the player in an excellent position, especially against a dealer who is vulnerable with a small upcard. You can obtain this total through any of the following combinations of cards: 6-5, 7-4, 8-3, and 9-2.
We have divided the optimal plays into two sections because your decisions are affected by variables such as the number of decks and the fixed house rules for the dealer. Of course, the dealer’s upcard also plays a crucial role when choosing the optimal move.
In single-deck and double-deck blackjack variations, a player holding 11 has only one option, which certainly makes the hand easy to memorize. You should always double down on your 11 in pitch games, regardless of the dealer’s upcard. It does not matter whether your dealer plays under the H17 or the S17 rules; you double as long as your 11 consists of two cards and hit if it consists of three or more small cards.
Optimal Plays for a Hand Total of 11 in Pitch Games Additional TipsThat being said, some long-term blackjack players and experts recommend a small deviation based on the composition of your 11 in double-deck games. They suggest doubling is justified when the hand consists of either 4-7 or 6-5 against any dealer upcard.
However, if the player has 2-9 or 3-8, they should always double their 11 under the H17 rule but hit in S17 games when the dealer shows an Ace. The logic behind this advice is that hitting is optimal in the double-deck S17 game because some of the cards that can make a successful double down, such as the 8 and the 9, are already in your hand, which reduces the likelihood of pulling one after doubling. Our advice is for you to master total-dependent strategy before you move on to composition-dependent strategy.
Some novice players are reluctant to double their 11 against a dealer with an Ace. In pitch games, especially those with the H17 rule, the player wins fewer hands by doubling, but the profit is twice as large compared to hitting.
Remember, the goal of an experienced blackjack player is not to win more hands than the dealer but to generate more profit over the long run. You will win about $160 by hitting your 11 against a dealer with an Ace, as opposed to doubling, which earns you $240 every hundred hands on average (if you flat bet in increments of $10).
Optimal Plays for a Hand Total of 11 in Multiple-Deck Games
Things are a little trickier for a player holding 11 in multiple-deck games, since the optimal plays are influenced by the dealer’s standing rules. The correct basic strategy for 11 under the S17 rule is to hit when the dealer has an Ace and double down against all other upcards (i.e., 2 through 10). However, if you are playing against a dealer who hits on soft 17, you should double your 11 against every upcard, including an Ace.
You cannot go wrong by memorizing the plays we have suggested above. They are based on mathematics and computer simulations and are guaranteed to do two things for you in the long term: help you win more money and reduce your losses when playing hard totals of 10 and 11.